Feb 26, 2012

As Trade Deadline Approaches, Isles Have Tough Decisions to Make

As the NHL trade deadline approaches Monday, the Islanders are positioned in the standings where they could go in multiple different directions. Currently sitting 8 points back, the team is on the fringe of being too far behind to catch up before the end of the season. But they also close enough where a miraculous run puts them right into contention for the final playoff spot. Given all that, Garth Snow is in a position where he will have some tough decisions to make.

The Islanders have two high-end potential unrestricted free agents: PA Parenteau and Evgeni Nabokov. Parenteau is currently second on the team in points (56), and is fifth in the NHL in assists (42). Nabokov has won 15 games for the Isles this season, while compiling a 2.26 GAA and .925 save percentage (8th in the NHL).

The Isles have repeatedly said they were not entertaining offers for Nabokov, who has stolen the #1 job from Al Montoya and the (again) injured Rick DiPietro. Nabokov, who declined to report to Long Island last season, has been reported to have interest in re-signing with the team. It's to be expected that Nabokov would want closure on the Rick DiPietro saga before he commits to the Islanders. That said, Chris Botta has tweeted that Nabokov enjoys playing with the Islanders and Nabokov himself has said he likes the direction the team is heading. It's also easy to see how the Islanders would want Nabokov to re-sign, given the level of play he has brought while being a calming influence on the ice.

On the Hotstove during Hockey Night in Canada last night, Elliotte Friedman reported that the two sides have continued to talk this weekend. Without a confirmed deal by Monday, it will be up to Snow to put Nabokov on the market or hope that a deal can be reached after the season after other decisions (DiPietro) are made. That said, there is no question Nabokov has been one of the MVPs for the Islanders this season. Given the mutual interest between the two sides, there is no reason that this should not get done. If talks break down at this point, the Isles are the ones that lose in the long run.

PA Parenteau is the other high-end free agent in which the Isles will need to make a decision on. After a solid campaign last year in his first full season (53 points), Parenteau has followed up with a career season scoring 56 points through 61 games. Parenteau has played much of the year on the John Tavares line and first powerplay unit, which has had some critics questioning his ability. Even so, the differences between Parenteau this year to last year are stark - he has cut down on turnovers, hustled defensively, and has developed an agitating edge making him a real annoyance for opponents.

Parenteau, now 28, is entering the prime of his career and will undoubtedly want to cash in on his big season. While Parenteau is grateful for the opportunity the Islanders have given him, he will still want to get paid for his efforts. Because of that, the Islanders may have to pay market value (or overpay) to retain Parenteau, which is something they have shied away from doing long term. Still, it makes sense to push the budget for one of your own. We know that Parenteau works with Tavares, and given the fit and role he has with the team, it may make sense for both sides to get something done.

The Islanders will still have to make a decision on Parenteau, as his agent, Allan Walsh, recently stated that Parenteau will not negotiate a new contract before the end of the season. Since the Islanders are in a tough spot, they will have to make a decision on whether to move Parenteau before Monday's deadline. Parenteau has a cheap cap hit ($1.25M), making him a very attractive option for teams close to the cap. Given his production this season, the Islanders could expect some big offers as teams get desperate as they lose out on other options.

While these two players are the most sought after roster players, the Islanders have other unrestricted free agents that may be moved for draft picks. Mark Eaton, Milan Jurcina, and Steve Staios all figure to be on the block. From my standpoint, Staios has provided a steady and calming influence this year while staying relatively healthy, and could be an option to come back as a bottom pairing or depth defenseman. Eaton has been effective in his role and could help a contender with defensive depth in the playoffs. Jurcina has had a down season, but has the tools to be a solid defenseman in the right role. It would not be surprising to  see two of these three defenseman moved.

As far as a blockbuster move goes, Garth Snow has not been apt to make those types of trades so it is unrealistic to expect one on Monday. While fans have been frustrated by the play of Kyle Okposo, Michael Grabner, and Mark Streit, the team has most likely identified these players as solutions for next year and barring a major overpayment, they will not be moved. Streit is the team's captain and provides a solid offensive presence. Even though his defensive play has been maddeningly inconsistent, he still provides an element that team cannot replace in the short-term.

Okposo and Grabner have been inconsistent this year, but are both still young, raw players that have not fully developed. Both players have seen success at the NHL level and will again, but need a better mix of coaching, structure, and line chemistry to get to that point. An offseason to clear their heads will do them both good as they enter the second year of a five year contract, but trading them (barring a major, major overpayment) would be a horrible mistake at this point. Keep in mind that even if the Isles have identified them as players that are not long-term options, it would make little sense to trade them with their value as low as it has been in a while.

The trade deadline is always an intriguing time for all of the teams in the NHL. For the Islanders, however, the Nabokov and Parenteau situations combined with their spot in the standings make things a little more interesting than they otherwise might have been.

Only 27 hours and counting.

-CH

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